Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Policy Communication, Daniel Bwala, has claimed that Nigeria would have been “overrun” by terrorists if not for what he described as the resolute interventions of the Tinubu administration.

Bwala said the security challenge inherited by the government was compounded by the spread of terrorist organisations across the Sahel, arguing that the scale of the threat required a combination of domestic security operations, military intervention and international cooperation.

He made the claim on Thursday during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, while responding to questions on the security situation in the country and the performance of the Tinubu administration in its three years in office. According to him, the movement of terrorist groups across the Sahel had created a wider regional security problem that threatened to spill deeper into Nigeria, particularly through the country’s northern borders.

“Let me be very honest with you, my brother, and your listeners. The God of heaven that we serve is a witness. Were it not for the various intervention of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria would have become a sorry state security-wise.”

Bwala said the presence and movement of terrorist organisations in the Sahel had created an additional layer to Nigeria’s existing security problems, with groups he identified as ISIS and the Taliban among those operating within the wider region. He said the influx had increased the pressure on Nigeria’s security architecture as these groups sought opportunities to establish themselves and extend their activities into different parts of the country.

“I am sure that if you are familiar with reports that came out globally, it says that, and you can Google that, you will see it, the Sahel areas where you have these insurgents from all over the world, they are moving to the Sahel, terrorists, Taliban, ISIS, all of them, these Sahel areas are here in Africa.”

He said the consequence of the regional instability could be seen in the activities of armed groups in parts of the North-West and North-East, where terrorists, bandits and other criminal elements have continued to operate. Bwala argued that the groups were not necessarily confined to one location, but attempted to spread their operations across communities, thereby creating a security challenge that required sustained pressure from security agencies.

“And that is why you see in the northwest and even in the northeast the influx of these terrorists. When they enter the country, they try to spread themselves across different parts of the country.”

According to Bwala, the magnitude of the threat meant that the government could not afford to approach insecurity as an isolated domestic problem, particularly as terrorist networks had become increasingly connected across national borders. He said the administration’s response had therefore involved stronger international partnerships alongside the deployment of Nigeria’s own security agencies, insisting that the scale of the threat made decisive action necessary.

“Now, when you have this ISIS at our navel, if not because of the resoluteness of this government, Nigeria would have been overrun.”

The presidential aide also introduced what he described as a “crisis economy” to explain another dimension of Nigeria’s security challenge, arguing that criminality had gradually developed into an organised financial enterprise in which kidnapping and other violent crimes were increasingly motivated by monetary rewards. He said the evolution of criminal activity meant that security agencies were not only fighting ideological insurgents but also individuals and groups who had discovered that insecurity could become a source of income.

“But let me break it down to the specifics. There is this thing called the crisis economy. Crisis economy is an economy that is generated from insecurity.”

Bwala said the kidnapping crisis had at one point become sufficiently commercialised for even ordinary Nigerians to participate in staged abductions for financial gain, illustrating what he described as the dangerous expansion of the criminal economy. He recalled an alleged case involving a church official who reportedly arranged his own kidnapping in order to make the church raise money for his release, saying such incidents demonstrated how insecurity could create secondary criminal behaviour beyond the activities of established terrorist groups.

“So now, you remember when the kidnapping started? It started by a criminal element. Before long, normal Nigerians would arrange for people to kidnap them so that their uncles would pay money. There was a case in Jaws where the secretary of the church arranged he was kidnapped so that the church would pay.”

He said the emergence of this crisis economy had placed enormous pressure on Nigeria’s internal security structure because criminals were being financially incentivised to continue committing crimes. Bwala argued that the response therefore required the coordinated deployment of the police, intelligence agencies and other internal security institutions, while acknowledging that the military had increasingly become involved because of the severity and changing nature of the threats confronting the country.

“So in a crisis economy, people commit crimes to be paid and they want to be paid to stop the crime. Now, when you are confronted by that, you need the workings of the elements of the internal security of the state, such as police, NCDC, and the, what do you call it, the SSS.”

Bwala said the situation had become so complex that soldiers had also been deployed for internal security operations, despite the military’s traditional responsibility for external threats. He argued that the decision reflected the exceptional nature of Nigeria’s security circumstances, particularly in areas where conventional policing had become inadequate to contain heavily armed criminal groups.

“But you see, because of the dynamic situation confronting Nigeria, we have had to even deploy soldiers to territories within Nigeria when their work is external to be able to get after that.”

He further highlighted Nigeria’s population and geographical size as factors that make the country particularly difficult to secure, saying the available number of security personnel remained disproportionately small when compared with the territory and population they were expected to cover. Bwala said the challenge was compounded by the fact that a significant number of officers had previously been assigned to protect private individuals rather than being deployed to areas where their presence was required for broader public security.

“And yet, this is a country or population of over 220 million. With the landmass covering, you can put like four to five European countries before you get to Nigeria, right? You have a limitation in terms of the soldiers, less than 400,000, police less than 400,000, and you have all these other elements.”

According to him, the Tinubu administration inherited a situation in which security personnel were not only stretched by the size of the country but were also heavily committed to protecting private citizens. He described this as one of the circumstances confronting the government when it assumed office and argued that the administration had consequently had to reassess how available security resources were deployed.

“Then a large chunk of these officers were deployed to protect private citizens. This is what Bola Ahmed Tinubu came and found.”

Bwala recalled what he described as a particularly difficult security environment towards the end of the previous administration, citing attacks, kidnappings, prison breaks and threats against government institutions as indications of the level of insecurity at the time. He said armed groups had become sufficiently emboldened to operate in the Federal Capital Territory and other parts of the country, while security forces also suffered casualties in attacks attributed to insurgents.

“At that time, if you remember, I'm requesting your memory, when Buhari was about to leave government, these guys came into Nigeria, like in the FCT, they were going during the day and kidnapping people. They killed our soldiers in Buhari. At one time, they threatened that they were going to come and remove Buhari in the villa. Remember the prison breaks everywhere in Nigeria.”

He also cited developments in Borno State, where he said insurgents had at various points taken control of local government areas, as part of the security conditions the Tinubu administration inherited. Bwala argued that the government should therefore be assessed not only against the attacks that still occur but also against the security environment it inherited and the extent to which government institutions had subsequently regained control of previously threatened territories.

“And in Borno State, the people reclaimed some local government in Nigeria. This was the situation Bola Ahmed Tinubu came and found.”

Bwala said he believed the situation had subsequently improved, pointing to what he described as the reduction in prison breaks and the restoration of government presence in major population centres. He maintained that although insecurity remained a serious concern in some local government areas, the overall security environment had changed sufficiently for government institutions to operate more effectively in places that were previously vulnerable to attacks.

“What is the situation today? Minimal or no prison break. Abuja is safe. The large part of the major cities in Nigeria are safe.”

He acknowledged that the improvement he described did not mean insecurity had disappeared, noting that terrorist and criminal groups continued to attack vulnerable communities and abduct children. Bwala said the persistence of such incidents remained a serious concern, but argued that the government’s response should also be assessed through its counter-terrorism operations and the extent to which security forces had been able to prevent armed groups from taking over larger territories.

“These guys operate in local government where they take out kids. There are children in schools.”

The presidential aide said Nigeria had also strengthened security cooperation with the United States, including through joint counter-terrorism operations aimed at attacking insurgents and other armed groups. He argued that the partnership had provided Nigeria with additional capacity in intelligence, military cooperation and counter-terrorism operations that would otherwise have been difficult and expensive for the country to undertake alone.

“We joined collaboration with the United States government. We are now conducting strike in Nigeria and killing those people.”

Bwala said the government’s recovery of control over previously threatened areas had also created the conditions for elections to be held across the country. He argued that the ability to conduct nationwide elections was itself an indication that government institutions had regained access to areas where insecurity had previously restricted state authority, although he did not suggest that every community had become completely free of security threats.

“We are approaching election. And election will be conducted in every part of Nigeria because we have been able to recover our government spaces.”

He also criticised what he described as the media’s tendency to focus heavily on controversial and violent incidents, arguing that constant amplification of terrorist activities could inadvertently give criminal groups greater visibility. Bwala said the existence of continuing attacks should not, in his view, obscure what he described as measurable improvements recorded by the security agencies, urging journalists to examine operational data alongside individual incidents.

“And I am aware that the media in lately, you know, controversy, issues trending, usually are controversial issues, amplification of the activities of the terrorists will create revenue for them. That's why the emphasis is there. But that does not take away numbers and statistics, my brother, of what we have achieved and we are achieving.”

He challenged journalists and members of the public to examine the operational records released by the Nigerian Armed Forces and Defence Headquarters rather than relying exclusively on reports of individual attacks. According to Bwala, the military routinely publishes information on its operations and successes, which he said should form part of the broader assessment of the country’s security performance.

“If we drop this interview today, sir, I would request for you to just log on to the website of the Nigerian Armed Forces, the Defense Headquarters. You will see the successes every day.”

Bwala also said suspects arrested in connection with terrorism were being prosecuted under the current administration, contrasting this with cases involving alleged terrorists previously returned to Nigeria from the United Arab Emirates. He maintained that the prosecution of such suspects was evidence that the government was not limiting its response to military operations but was also pursuing the legal processes required to deal with those accused of terrorism.

“In this administration, the ones that Dubai released to Nigeria during the previous administration that were not eventually prosecuted, they have been prosecuted in this administration. Security-wise, we are making the progress.”

On the killings in Benue and Plateau states and the controversy surrounding claims of Christian genocide, Bwala rejected any suggestion that the Nigerian government was participating in attacks against Christians. He said the government recognised that Christians and Muslims had both been victims of violence, but insisted that this should not be interpreted as evidence that the Federal Government itself was responsible for the killings.

“In Nigeria, is the government part of the killing of Christians? That was why we disagreed. We were not saying Christians are not killed. We were not saying Muslims are not killed. Our talk is that this government is not a participator in this concern.”

Bwala said he had personally participated in international engagements to explain the Nigerian government’s position on the security situation, particularly in the United States, where he said he met members of Congress and other stakeholders. He said the objective was to counter what the government considered inaccurate representations of the nature of the violence in Nigeria while also seeking greater international cooperation to tackle the security threats affecting the country.

“But then we went, and you remember the president sent me on the global media tour so I can speak to it authoritatively to you. And I went around the world, and I focused more in the United States of America, engaging with congressmen.”

He said the diplomatic engagements had contributed to the development of a stronger security partnership between Nigeria and the United States, with both countries establishing working groups focused on security cooperation. Bwala said the partnership had moved beyond diplomatic discussions to practical cooperation involving Nigerian security officials and their American counterparts.

“We have formed a very strong partnership. We have had the first working group. The second working group was about last week or so, where the NSA and the team of our members went to the U.S.”

Bwala argued that the value of the partnership could be understood not simply in diplomatic terms but also in the military resources and capabilities that it made available to Nigeria. He cited the cost of deploying advanced military equipment against terrorist targets as an illustration of the scale of support that could be obtained through international cooperation, saying the arrangement had therefore produced tangible benefits for Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts.

“Do you know how much it costs the America to send a cruise missile from the sea to come and strike people in the Northwest? If you quantify it in monetary terms, it's the cost of the partnership that we have with the U.S. So we have made the progress, my brother.”

The presidential aide, however, argued that the Federal Government could not bear the entire responsibility for Nigeria’s security challenges, insisting that state and local governments must also play a more active role. He questioned the position of governors who deny responsibility for security while simultaneously relying on the state security architecture during elections and other major political activities, saying sub-national authorities needed to demonstrate greater ownership of security concerns.

“Isn't it intriguing when a governor tells you that he is not the chief security officer of a state, therefore he can't do this, he can't do that. But when he wants to conduct elections, the whole state is able to secure him to conduct elections he will benefit from. Isn't it a quick loss?”

Bwala said governors needed to do more to support security agencies and address threats within their jurisdictions, arguing that the Federal Government could not be expected to respond effectively to every localised security incident across the country. He also questioned the use of security votes by state governments, asking whether the substantial funds allocated under such arrangements were producing measurable improvements in the security of citizens.

“The truth of the matter is that governors need to do more. A lot of governors are not doing anything. I'm sure you are aware of security votes. You haven't asked yourself where do they carry the money to. Some states get as much as one billion and over for security votes. What is the resultant effect?”

He said greater local control could become particularly important if the country’s proposed state police structure is implemented, arguing that security challenges occurring within communities could be addressed more effectively by institutions that understand the local environment. Bwala said the Tinubu administration had consequently moved towards a State Police Initiative as part of a broader attempt to decentralise security responsibilities and strengthen policing at the sub-national level.

“That is the crux of the matter. The president is a democrat. That is why we now went ahead to now do the State Police Initiative. So by the next administration, you would have seen improved security at the state level, because we're able to create state police.”

Bwala ultimately maintained that Nigeria’s security crisis required a multi-level response involving the Federal Government, the military, the police, intelligence agencies, state governments and local authorities. He said the Tinubu administration had strengthened domestic operations and international partnerships while pursuing structural changes such as state police, but acknowledged that continued attacks in some communities meant the security challenge was far from over and would require sustained intervention beyond the Federal Government alone.