The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has accused the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of favouring the South, particularly the South-West, in the distribution of federal resources, political appointments and other government opportunities.

Ardo made the allegation on Monday, during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, where he assessed the performance of the Tinubu administration in Northern Nigeria and examined the political implications ahead of the 2027 general election.

Ardo argued that the disparity between the North and South was particularly evident in the actual release of funds to federal ministries, despite the budgets allocated to them.

He said, "The budget to the ministries and the actual releases of funds, the North could have not been equated with the South at all. By far the south has received more releases about five times than the northern ministries".

According to him, the issue was not simply about budgetary allocations on paper but the actual resources eventually released to ministries and government institutions.

Ardo also claimed that most of the parastatals are given to the South, which he said further reinforces the perception among Northerners that the region has not received a fair share under the present administration.

He argued that the assessment of the administration should therefore consider not only the number of political appointments given to people from different regions but also the distribution of government resources and opportunities.

Political Appointments and Representation

Ardo also questioned the manner in which critical political appointments have been distributed under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the issue has generated a sense of exclusion among some groups in Northern Nigeria.

According to him, the ethnic and geographical complexities of Nigeria make the question of representation particularly sensitive, especially when appointments are interpreted through the lens of regional identity.

He said, "The perception which is also true is that he has yorubanise his administration. He has given all the critical appointments to his own kins and Yorubas The Hausa/ Fulanis and other extended groups in the North feel short changed and this perception has created a damage to this administration in Northern Nigeria"

Ardo further argued that the debate over appointments becomes more complicated when states such as Kwara and Kogi are classified within discussions about Northern Nigeria, despite their strong Yoruba cultural and linguistic connections.

He said, "I want to make a distinction between the North that we call Hausa/ fulani North even though, we can say that the ruling aristocracy of Kwara is fulani".

Kwara, Kogi and the Question of Identity

Ardo said the historical and cultural identity of Kwara and Kogi should be considered when analysing the regional distribution of political appointments.

He said, "Because Tinubu is Yoruba, so, all appointment that are Yoruba, whether it is in the North Kwara or in the North kogi, it is seen as Yoruba. And given the movement that are been done, that we need to move Kogi and Kwara back to Yoruba land agitated the Yorubas. It is been agitated by the Yorubas before Independence."

He maintained that the vastness and diversity of Northern Nigeria make it difficult to treat the region as a completely homogeneous political bloc.

According to him, "Because of the vastness of Northern Nigeria that carries Yoruba and other groups that are not homogeneous, you can say that the North has some other critical appointment that is distributed by the Tinubu Administration"

Economic Reforms and Northern Nigeria

The discussion also focused extensively on the economic reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration, including the removal of fuel subsidy and other measures aimed at restructuring the Nigerian economy.

Ardo said he could not identify how the reforms had translated into meaningful benefits for Northern Nigerians, arguing that the region had been hit particularly hard because of its large population of poor people.

"I do not see in any way how the North has benefited from the economic reforms," he said.

He argued that the reforms had contributed to higher inflation and weakened the purchasing power of citizens, making it increasingly difficult for households to meet their basic needs.

Ardo said, "The economic from of the administration is actually biting on everybody and it has bitten on the North more than the south. The North has a large number of poor people, because the economic Reforms have send inflation high and the protesting power of people has gone by far low. It has pushed the North from a state of poverty to a state of destitution".

From Poverty to Destitution

Ardo further described the economic situation in the North as a movement from poverty into a deeper level of deprivation.

He said, "In the North now, our people have gone more destitute than they are even poor. It has completely wiped out the middle class and the upper class is just only those that are in Government".

According to him, the consequences of the reforms extend beyond the poor, with businesses and other sections of society also facing significant economic pressure.

He questioned whether increases in workers’ salaries had been sufficient to compensate for the decline in the purchasing power of Nigerians following the depreciation of the naira.

Ardo's assessment was that the real value of earnings had been significantly eroded, making nominal salary increases less meaningful to workers struggling with higher prices.

Who Is Benefiting From the Reforms?

Ardo also questioned who has benefited most from the economic policies of the administration, arguing that government should ultimately be judged by the impact of its reforms on ordinary citizens.

In a particularly strong assessment of the government's economic direction, he said, "The economic reform is by Tinubu, of Tinubu and for Tinubu’s benefit."

He argued that the reforms have placed considerable pressure on citizens while failing, in his assessment, to produce tangible improvements in their living conditions.

According to Ardo, the situation is particularly concerning in Northern Nigeria because of the region's existing levels of poverty and economic vulnerability.

Northern Businesses Under Pressure

Ardo also examined the effect of the reforms on businesses, arguing that Northern entrepreneurs are struggling to remain viable in the current economic environment.

He said, "If you look at the business scheme in Northern Nigeria, the largest business holder in the country from the North is Aliko Dangote. Under the reform of Tinubu's administration is fighting the battle of his life to keep his business going"

For Ardo, the difficulties confronting businesses demonstrate that the consequences of the reforms are not restricted to households but also extend to major industrial and commercial operators.

He argued that if one of Nigeria's largest businessmen is facing significant difficulties, smaller businesses in the North may be experiencing even greater pressure.

Dangote Refinery and the Economy

Ardo specifically referred to the controversies surrounding the operations of the Dangote refinery and the public interventions by Aliko Dangote over issues affecting his business.

He said, "On the issue of refinery under Tinubu's administration, Aliko Dangote was on the media defending and protesting more than he has done in his business life."

Ardo said the experience of Northern businessmen under the current reforms showed, in his view, that the economic policies had not produced the expected tangible benefits for the region.

He maintained that businesses require a stable economic environment, predictable policies and sufficient purchasing power among consumers to thrive.

Insecurity in the North

Beyond the economy, Ardo identified insecurity as another major area of concern for Northern Nigeria.

He criticised the Tinubu administration over what he described as its failure to sufficiently address insurgency and other security challenges affecting communities across the region.

Ardo said, "Tinubu didn’t learn from those who have knowledge and have tried it hard to stop security problems in Nigeria. He should be able to provide a solution to it, but he has done nothing,"

He, however, acknowledged that the security challenges confronting Nigeria are complex and cannot be eliminated easily.

"I know that those problems can’t be easily eradicated," he said.

Lessons From Other Countries

Ardo argued that Nigeria could learn from other countries that have confronted and overcome prolonged insurgencies.

He disclosed that he had written a book examining how South America resolved a three-decade insurgency in one year, suggesting that experiences from other countries could provide useful lessons for Nigeria.

For him, tackling insecurity remains critical to economic development because farmers, traders and other businesses cannot operate effectively when their lives and property remain under threat.

He argued that resolving insecurity would therefore not only improve safety but could also help restore economic activity across communities in the North.

Is the North Marginalised?

Ardo's comments also addressed the broader question of whether Northern Nigeria has been politically marginalised under the Tinubu administration.

While he raised concerns over the distribution of resources and appointments, the assessment also recognised the complexity of defining Northern representation in a country with diverse ethnic, cultural and geographical identities.

The debate, according to Ardo's assessment, should therefore go beyond the number of Northern politicians occupying government positions and focus on whether the people of the region are experiencing meaningful improvements in security, infrastructure and economic conditions.

He also acknowledged that the North remains a major component of Nigeria's political structure and that several critical appointments have gone to Northerners.

Infrastructure Concerns

Infrastructure also featured in the broader assessment of the North under Tinubu.

Ardo acknowledged concerns over the condition of major roads in the region, citing the Kaduna-Kano road as an example of infrastructure challenges that continue to affect movement and economic activity.

Poor roads, according to the assessment, can increase travel time, raise transportation costs and make movement between communities more difficult.

He questioned whether the administration had done enough to address some of the longstanding developmental challenges inherited from previous governments.

The 2027 Political Question

With the 2027 presidential election approaching, Ardo argued that the economic and security experiences of Northern voters could have significant political consequences.

He maintained that the support President Tinubu received from the North during the 2023 presidential election should not be interpreted as a permanent political commitment.

According to him, voters are likely to judge the administration based on their experiences with insecurity, poverty, economic reforms and governance.

Ardo consequently made a strong prediction about Tinubu's chances in the region if the 2027 election is conducted freely and fairly.

He said, "If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,"

In another submission on the same issue, he said, "If they conduct the election in a free and fair manner, Tinubu will not win 10 percent of the North,"

The prediction places the Northern electorate at the centre of the political battle ahead of 2027, particularly given the region's importance in presidential elections.