The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has confidently predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is set to secure victory in the 2027 presidential elections, citing Nigeria’s demographic patterns and voting data as key indicators of electoral outcomes.* 

Speaking in an exclusive interview on Frontline, a public affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, on Tuesday, Keyamo dismissed assertions by opposition groups that they could leverage their 2023 gains to outmaneuver the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next general elections.

“Politics is very, very dynamic, but I can tell you this: ceteris paribus, no matter the combination the opposition brings, the demography of Nigeria favors the ruling party. It will be extremely difficult—almost impossible—for them to beat us,” Keyamo stated, emphasizing that demographic realities, including regional, religious, and generational voting patterns, will shape electoral outcomes.

He scrutinized the potential influence of the so-called Obidients movement, which rallied around Peter Obi in 2023, arguing that it was overhyped and lacked organization. ““The Obidients never won any election for him. Never got any 6 million votes for him. The Obidient, so-called Obidient group, they are just a ragtag group, ragtag, unprepared, unorganized group. My statement at that time, I will repeat it again. They exist only on Facebook and a few social media handles. If you count them as just popular faces of Obidient, always popular, are there more than 50 or 100? Always making Facebook posts and Twitter and all that. There are not more than 100 active ones.” he said. According to Keyamo, these groups’ virtual visibility does not translate to political power at the ballot box.

Keyamo also highlighted the role of religion and regional loyalties in determining voter behavior. He questioned whether the churches and voters who supported Obi in 2023 would rally behind him if he were running as a vice-presidential candidate alongside someone from a different religion. “The greatest demystification of Atiku and Obi, especially Obi, is for them to run together. Let us strip him of that so-called myth. We need to strip him. Let us now see whether he can gather those Christians from the middle belt up to mid-west, south-south and south-east that voted for him massively. And the churches in Lagos. Those churches in Lagos that voted for him. Let us see whether they will now campaign for him as vice president for another candidate from another religion. And 80-year-old candidates for another religion. Who will be his principal?” he argued, underscoring his confidence in APC’s enduring appeal.

POLITICS IS ABOUT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAKNESS OF YOUR OPPONENTS – KEYAMO DEFENDS DEFECTION TO APC

Beyond electoral predictions, Keyamo addressed criticisms over the defection of prominent politicians to the APC. He defended the movement as a natural feature of politics, which he described as a strategic game of exploiting the weaknesses of opponents rather than intervening in their internal affairs.

“Politics is about taking advantage of the weakness of your opponents. So, if they are not organized, if they cannot put their house in order, if they don't have a stable political party, if they want to steal the party from other people who own this, how can they then turn around? Oh, so is it the ruling party that will now intervene and say, because we want to have an opposition at all costs, we will now settle their problem for them?” Keyamo remarked, framing defections as a reflection of opposition parties’ internal vulnerabilities.

He likened attempts to destabilize other parties to unlawful invasions of property: “When supposed grown men invade a house, attempt to take control, and a fight erupts, blaming a total bystander makes no sense. How sensible can that be?” For Keyamo, such disputes reveal both the opportunistic mentality and lack of discipline within opposition ranks.

Keyamo drew a distinction between the APC, which he described as a party built through internal coalition and merger, and parties like the ADC, which he claimed were subject to opportunistic takeovers. “In 2015, when we wanted to contest in 2015 as opposition… we realized the dangers in this and that's why they came together with their own existing parties and formed a coalition and then formed a merger and came up with an APC. No stress, no controversy, because it was their own property, their own. They registered it themselves. So they didn't want to fight anybody.” He added.

ADC WILL NOT SURVIVE 2027 ELECTIONS – KEYAMO

Keyamo further predicted that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) would fail to establish a lasting political presence, describing it as a short-term platform for opportunists. He argued that the recent influx of defectors into the ADC did not amount to a sustainable opposition strategy.

“They may have all left the PDP and they, you know, they flunked the Senate to go to ADC. For me, the PDP is still the main opposition, not this ADC. The ADC is just an SPV. Like they said, they just want to steal an SPV, steal a party as an SPV, use a run election, but all of them will leave. ADC will not survive the 2027 election cycle. Whether they win on the plaza or not, they will all go back to their cocoon, to their first choice. Either back to PDP or back to Labour and all these places they're coming from. It will not survive. They can't survive. ADC cannot survive beyond 2027.”

he stated, warning that its members would likely return to their original parties after the 2027 elections.

Keyamo maintained that attempts to blame the APC for internal ADC disputes were misplaced. “You want to steal someone's property, you will not be destabilized? The destabilizer is coming from their own, within their own house. Yoruba say ‘kokoro to nje efo, inu efo lo wa.’ It's inside there. They are fighting inside themselves. They should leave us alone. We have done our registration. We have done our homework. We have wooed our governors. They are within our party. We are good to go. Only, they should find the subject of their problem. They should solve their problem. They should leave us alone. We are just fighting our business and preparing for election.” he said, highlighting APC’s strategic focus and party discipline.

He concluded by underscoring that the survival and success of the APC depended on active participation by all members, whether long-standing or newly inducted. “Once you come in, the day you step in, you have it all right like people who have been there 100 years. Because you know why? You have to fight for your party. Now you are part of the party. You have to fight for the survival of that party and for that party to win. Anybody just coming in is as much as somebody who has been there 100 years. They are all fighting for the same objective. There's nothing like new or old members. There's nothing like that.” he said.